The Future in the Present
A Three Horizons Approach to Affordable Housing Preservation
In the last post, we talked about the Preservation Paradox and its three interacting components – decarbonization, rehabilitation, and stabilization.
We concluded that decarb is a logical starting point, since the pathway to funding is less uncertain than the pathways to funding rehabilitation or stabilization, and because – if the intention is to leverage decarbonization towards the shared priority of Preservation -- making decarbonization upgrades sets in motion a cascade of interactions that move stakeholders toward that shared vision.
This is an example of how we can apply a framework called Three Horizons, which was developed by Bill Sharpe on behalf of the International Futures Forum to help people engage more effectively with these types of complex challenges.
The first horizon (H1) describes the system as it currently operates, the status quo. There is much in H1 to be grateful for – and lots of things in H1 must stay the same for daily life to go on – but we’re seeing signs that our H1 ways of doing things are out of step with emerging conditions, not producing the outcomes we want to see.
The third horizon (H3) is the future system – the new ways of living, working, and investing that fit better with emerging needs and opportunities.
The second horizon (H2) is the bridge — the messy middle – where new ways of doing things emerge through a combination of deliberate action and opportunistic adaptation. This is where Retrofit LA operates.
The way we live now was once the third horizon – partly imagined, partly intended, largely unknown – brought about by choices we collectively made, consciously or unconsciously.
“Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”
– Carl Jung
Whether we realize it or not, the status quo (H1) is a choice – it is not our fate.
And, while there are parts worth conserving, H1 approaches are not going to deliver on our vision: better neighborhoods, same neighbors.
“If we are to get anywhere, we have to choose our direction and set off, unsure of what we will find, guided by a blend of knowledge, imagination, and our values,” says Bill Sharpe, inventor of the Three Horizons framework. “All three horizons are always present, and each horizon is a way of acting in the present moment with a future-oriented intent,”
Acting, in the present moment, with future-oriented intent, to build a system where everyone has access to affordable, safe, healthy housing.
This is our conscious choice.